Dave Epstein on the possibilities of more snow Friday, a coastal storm Sunday-Monday

Weather

First, some snow and light rain Wednesday will be more annoying than anything.

I was chatting with my AI friend this morning about the word “storm.” I really don’t like using that word to describe every single precipitation event that occurs; it just overdoes things. Over the next several days, we have three precipitation chances, with the last one having the greatest potential but also the least confidence in a forecast at this point.

The first one, which will bring some snow and light rain to parts of the area later this afternoon and the first half of the overnight, is more annoying than anything. But our next one, on Friday, will likely bring a little more significant precipitation — if we’re going to use the word storm, then it’s a minor one. Most of Massachusetts, including Boston, should see 2 to 4 inches of snow, with higher totals held to Northern New England, where you may need to break out the snowblower. The precipitation will likely begin during the morning commute.

The third weather event, Sunday night into Monday, has the potential to develop into a bigger snowstorm. The odds right now favor another miss for a significant storm for Greater Boston and New England. However, if this system does come closer, it would definitely be quite a major storm or possibly develop into a nor’easter, depending on the track.

Tides are astronomically high early next week, so we’ll have to watch for some minor coastal flooding and even beach erosion depending on the track of that low-pressure area.

Here’s a breakdown of each upcoming storm:

Storm No. 1: Friday’s system has a little more energy

The next weather system moves in on Friday. Once again, low pressure will head up through the Great Lakes and a frontal system will stretch eastward in a similar pattern to what we’re seeing today. The difference here is that there’s a little more energy with this system and the potential for a quick hit of snow and rain on Friday afternoon and evening. Some scattered snow showers could last into Saturday.

Several inches of snow could accumulate if the temperature profile is cold enough.

That’s a big “if” at this point. Cold enough temperatures for accumulation are most likely north of the Mass. Pike, especially across Northern New England. In terms of accumulation, we will probably see a coating to a couple of inches south of the Mass. Pike and 2 to 5 inches north of the Mass Pike, closer to Route 2, as of right now.

Timing plays a role with this storm, as a secondary low may form over the Gulf of Maine at some point Friday afternoon. This would bring a quick southerly drop in the rain-snow line and help support higher snow totals versus Wednesday’s storm.

Another factor? This storm will push through the region during the daytime, when temperatures will likely rise above freezing. This will jockey the rain-snow line around and could influence snow totals. This picture will be tightened up by the end of Thursday.

Storm No. 2: Potential coastal system Sunday night into Monday

There’s a little bit of a break on Saturday but still a lot of clouds. Then Sunday is looking cloudy and chilly with temperatures in the mid-30s. If this coastal storm, which has a chance to turn into a nor’easter, is going to impact us on Monday, we would see snow arriving Sunday night and into the first part of Monday. Like I said, presently, nearly all the models we use move this storm far enough out to sea that it will miss us completely. .

If there is going to be any snow, it’s most likely to occur over Southeastern Massachusetts.

However, if you’re a fan of another snowstorm, root for the AI model (Euro’s AIFS), which gives us only a little bit of snow, as does the latest European run.

According to the Euro, Boston is forecast to pick up a couple of inches with this forecast, with parts of the Cape seeing anywhere between 3 and 6 inches. But we will see.

Whether or not Boston sees an impactful snowstorm will come down to how this coastal storm interacts with another area of low pressure sliding into New England from the west. We likely won’t see bombogenesis, where pressure drops 24 millibars within 24 hours, but this storm may get close.

Tides will be astronomically high this weekend, so until we get to probably Friday, forecast trends need to be monitored. Whatever happens, Tuesday returns to sunshine and colder-than-average temperatures.

Stay tuned!

Globe meteorologist Ken Mahan contributed to this report.

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