New England Patriots
The Patriots will need to dial up plenty of pressure against Sam Darnold on Sunday in hopes that he wilts.
SAN FRANCISCO — It’s crunch time in the Bay Area for both the Patriots and Seahawks ahead of Super Bowl LX.
With just one more walkthrough standing between both teams and Sunday’s showdown at Levi’s Stadium, the waiting game is almost at an end.
Here’s a look at five X-factors that could determine who hoists the Lombardi Trophy on Sunday:
Sam Darnold under pressure
How Sam Darnold fares against New England’s blitz-heavy defense might be the top determinant in who emerges with a win on Sunday evening.
The Seahawks QB has been one of the league’s top success stories over the last few years, especially during a playoff run in Seattle where he’s thrown for 470 yards, four touchdowns, and zero interceptions over two games.
He was stellar in the NFC championship game against the Rams, especially in terms of delivering throws under pressure. When pressured against Los Angeles, Darnold did complete 5-of-11 throws — but for 102 yards and three touchdowns.
If he can be that sharp against whatever pressure players like Milton Williams, Christian Barmore, and K’Lavon Chaisson dial up, then the Patriots are in for a long evening.
But as great as he’s been during the playoffs, dialing up pressure on Darnold has oftentimes been the best way to get him to unravel so far this season.
During regular-season action, Darnold ranked just 28th among qualified passers in EPA/dropback under pressure during regular season action, throwing for six touchdowns and six picks, and sporting a sub 70.0 passer rating.
The only QBs with a worse EPA/dropback under pressure during the 2025 season were Mac Jones, Cam Ward, Aaron Rodgers, Joe Flacco and Geno Smith.
The Patriots will likely dial up plenty of blitzes on Sunday in hopes of forcing Darnold into ill-advised throws. If he reverts back to what he was during regular-season play, the Patriots could capitalize.
Drake Maye’s legs
Drake Maye and the Patriots’ offense are going to have their hands full with a stout Seahawks defense that ranks first in scoring defense, first in EPA, first in DVOA, first in third-down defense, fourth in pressure rate, fifth in red zone defense, and seventh in yards allowed.
But Seattle might be susceptible on the ground if Maye starts scrambling to extend plays, gain first downs, and move the ball to avoid the inevitable pressure bearing down on him.
As noted by Patriots.com’s Evan Lazar, Seattle ranks 29th in yards per rush allowed to quarterbacks (5.0) and ranks 16th in EPA on out-of-structure drop-backs, or scrambles.
Josh McDaniels’ offensive gameplan may not be chock full of designed runs or naked bootlegs, but expect Maye to utilize his legs when needed in order to keep Seattle’s defense guessing and move the chains.
Robert Spillane’s ankle
It remains to be seen if Patriots leading tackler Robert Spillane will be cleared for Sunday’s showdown after being limited in practice all week with an ankle injury.
Even if he does take the field at Levi’s Stadium, it’s rather evident that the veteran linebacker won’t be at 100 percent.
That could be bad news for New England’s run defense, especially given how much Seattle likes to jumpstart drives with a steady dose of hand-offs to get Sam Darnold in favorable third-down yardage situations.
Running back Kenneth Walker has been a force on the ground for Seattle this playoff run with 256 yards and four touchdowns. If he can get rolling and gain consistent yardage on the ground, it makes life a lot easier for Darnold.
But Seattle’s offense has been prone to short-circuiting when facing third-and-long situations. As noted by Lazar, the Seahawks — when facing 3rd-and-7-plus yards, are actually 31st in the NFL in conversion rate at just 16.8 percent. New England, meanwhile, has the best third-and-long defense in the league.
If New England’s run defense with players like Spillane, Khyiris Tonga, and Milton Williams can bottle up Walker, Darnold could be in for some trouble on third-down plays.
The left side of New England’s offensive line
For all the talk of speeding up Darnold, the Seahawks also have to be smelling blood in the water when it comes to putting Maye under duress on Sunday.
Even though Seattle isn’t a blitz-heavy team, they still generate an awful lot of pressure — with seven different defensive linemen recording 20-plus pressures this season.
It wouldn’t come as much of a surprise if two of Seattle’s most potent playmakers at the line of scrimmage in defensive tackle Leonard Williams and DeMarcus Lawrence line up against New England’s rookie duo of Will Campbell and Jared Wilson.
After a rough showing against Los Angeles and Houston in the playoffs, Campbell steadied his game in the AFC title game against Denver — allowing just two pressures against a Broncos club that led the NFL in sacks.
Both Campbell and Wilson will need to be at their best against a Seattle team that has forced two strip sacks, nine total quarterback hits, and three throwaways across two playoff games this winter.
Christian Gonzalez vs. JSN
Even if Darnold is put under duress, he does have a “get out of jail free” card whenever he lofts up a ball to Jaxon Smith-Njigba. The reigning NFL Offensive Player of the Year has been a monster this year — reeling in 119 catches for 1,793 yards and 10 touchdowns during regular-season play.
It remains to be seen if New England’s top corner in Christian Gonzalez will shadow JSN all evening, given that Seattle tends to draw up special alignments in order to make it difficult for one corner to completely account for him for the whole game.
But in critical situations, especially on third-down plays and in the red zone, expect Gonzalez to be the man tasked with stopping arguably the best offensive threat in the NFL.
According to Next Gen Stats, Gonzalez faced 28 targets this postseason, six more than any other defender, and allowed just 11 receptions. That 39.3 percent completion percentage allowed is the lowest by any player to face 25+ targets in a postseason since at least 2018.
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