Weather
“Cape Cod and the Islands will be impacted the most by this weather system, but even there, the impact will be nothing remarkable.”
A massive nor’easter developing Saturday off the Carolina coast will power up the Eastern Seaboard, just one week after the strongest winter storm in four years dumped mounds of snow across Southern New England. Around noontime on Saturday, low pressure east of Cape Hatteras will begin to rapidly strengthen, undergoing bombogenesis, to become a very intense Atlantic winter storm.
But it looks like New England will escape its full fury. The good news is that the most intense part is going to remain out to sea, over the fish, and we will only catch the northwest fringe as the massive storm heads out into the open Atlantic south of the Canadian Maritimes.
Cape Cod and the Islands will be impacted the most by this weather system, but even there, the impact will be nothing remarkable.
Forecast snowfall
• 3 to 6 inches — For Cape Cod and Martha’s Vineyard, you can expect 2 to 5 inches of snow with some isolated 6-inch amounts possible for Nantucket if the storm doesn’t move too far to the east. Similarly, you will likely wake up to snow on Sunday morning, and there will probably be snow in the air throughout the day with a couple of bursts of heavier snow at times.
• 1 to 3 inches — The South Shore and down toward Plymouth and the South Coast — also from around Providence to South County, Rhode Island — will likely see 1 to 3 inches of snow. That higher end would be in areas approaching the Cape and perhaps near Narragansett Bay. Similarly, areas to the north can plan to receive some light snow throughout the day.
• Coating to 1 inch — From eastern Essex County down into Boston and southwest toward Providence can expect a coating to perhaps an inch or two of snow. For areas west of I-495, this is a zero-impact event.
Timeline
The snow will start coming down between 2 and 5 a.m. on Sunday across the Cape, and parts of Southeastern Mass., and the snow will continue throughout the day. Clearing takes place overnight, and it’s back to sunshine on Monday.
There’s no heaviest part of the storm, really, but plan on some snow in the air during the daylight hours on Sunday. If there is anything falling after dark, it will come to an end pretty quickly and definitely by sunrise on Monday.
A winter storm watch is in effect for the Cape and islands from late Saturday through late Sunday night.
What if the storm track shifts?
If the track of the storm shifts even farther east, areas with the least projected snow, like the Boston area, would end up with nothing, especially beyond I-95, and those spots expected to get the most snow would end up with even less.
High winds
Clouds will increase Saturday night after a cold day, with high temperatures only reaching 20 degrees. A bit of a coastal front will try to develop over Southeastern Mass., and some of that less cold air clashing with the Arctic air over the extreme eastern areas, including Boston, could cause some snow showers to break out Sunday morning.
It will be breezy all day long throughout Central and Eastern Massachusetts and windy on Cape Cod. Strong winds gusting up to 55 mph could reduce visibility on the Cape and Islands, making it difficult to drive for a few hours on Sunday afternoon.
It will be interesting that even with just a few inches of snow and wind gusting over 30 mph on the Cape, you may see little piles of snow that reach over 6 inches or even a foot if the wind catches enough snow. Mostly, I just expect it to be blowing across the roads.
Possible coastal flooding
There is the potential for minor to moderate coastal flooding Sunday into Monday along the Eastern Mass. coastline, with the combination of strong winds, a 1- to 3-foot storm surge, and the high tides. The high tides will be at 10:20 a.m. and 11 p.m. on Sunday, and at 11:13 a.m. on Monday.
One to 2 feet of inundation is possible in low-lying areas near shorelines, according to the National Weather Service. A coastal flood watch has been issued for Sunday and Monday.
The frigid cold continues on Sunday, with temperatures in the upper teens to low 20s.
For those of you who wanted this big storm because they can be exciting, I would just say that had the full force of the system impacted Southern New England, we would be looking at power outages, coastal flooding, and beach erosion — and more snow than many areas could handle, so it’s probably a good thing that this one is a miss.
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