21 stats to know for Sunday’s Patriots-Broncos AFC Championship matchup

New England Patriots

The battle between the Patriots’ offense and the Broncos’ defense is a matchup of strength against strength.

By Conor Roche

January 24, 2026 | 5:05 PM

4 minutes to read

We know what the Patriots’ and Broncos’ strengths are ahead of Sunday’s AFC Championship Game.

For New England, quarterback Drake Maye has put up a season worthy of an MVP as the Patriots have several key contributors on both sides of the ball this postseason. For Denver, its defense has been among the best in the league, ranking second in yards allowed and first in sacks this season.

But let’s take a further look at the stats to determine where each team might have a specific advantage in Sunday’s matchup. Here are 21 stats to know that could determine the final outcome of the AFC title game.

132.7: Drake Maye’s 132.7 passer rating on deep passes (throws where the ball traveled at least 20 yards down the field) was the best mark in the regular season, per Pro Football Focus. That number has dipped to 77.1 in the postseason, although Maye’s Hail Mary interception against the Texans hurts that number.

20.3: Denver has the lowest completion percentage against deep balls this season, with opposing quarterbacks completing 20.3 percent of passes, per Next Gen Stats. Josh Allen didn’t complete a single one of his nine deep throws last week and threw two interceptions on such passes. So, Sunday’s game is a strength against strength in that regard.

79.4: The Broncos’ 79.4 passer rating allowed this season was also the fifth-best mark in the league. The only two defenses the Patriots have played with a better mark were the Chargers and Texans. Maye had a 93.4 passer rating over those two games.

2: Broncos star cornerback and reigning Defensive Player of the Year Patrick Surtain II has allowed just two touchdowns this year, per Pro Football Focus. So, as Surtain covers the boundary, that could be tough news for Patriots wide receiver Kayshon Boutte.

7: But Maye might be smart to pick on Broncos starting cornerback Riley Moss. Moss has allowed seven touchdowns this season, which is tied for the eighth-most in the league, according to PFF.

41.8: The Broncos’ 41.8 percent pressure rate is the third-best mark in football. The only team the Patriots have faced with a better pressure rate was the Texans, who sacked Maye five times last week.

13.7: Patriots rookie left tackle Will Campbell has been a big reason for the number of sacks allowed. His 13.7 pressure rate allowed this postseason is the worst mark on the Patriots, according to Next Gen Stats. He’s also allowed a team-high 10 pressures and four sacks in the playoffs.

24: There are a number of stats that show just how well Broncos edge rusher Nik Bonitto has played this season as he finished fifth in the league with 14 sacks. But his 24 percent pass rush win rate was the second-best mark in the league.

4.6: If there is a weakness with this Broncos’ defense, it’s with their ability to stop the run. They’ve allowed 4.6 yards per carry over their last eight games, which would’ve been tied for the seventh-worst mark in football this season.

5.4: Will the Patriots be able to take advantage of the Broncos’ relative struggles against the run as of late? Well, they’ve run the ball for 5.4 yards per carry in the six games since the bye, which is promising. Although two of those games were against the Jets and Dolphins.

40: If the Patriots want to slow down Jarrett Stidham, the key might be to get pressure on him. Stidham has a 40 percent completion percentage in his career when he’s been pressured. He also posted a 76.9 passer rating against pressure in two starts with the Broncos in 2023, and had a 64.5 passer rating against pressure when he was with the Raiders in 2022, per PFF. For reference, Maye had a 123 passer rating against pressure this season.

18.7: Not only has Stidham been bad at throwing the ball against pressure, but he’s also taken a good number of sacks against pressure in his career. He was sacked 14 times in 75 dropbacks against pressure between his appearances in the 2022 and 2023 seasons. That gives Stidham an 18.7 pressure rate, which would’ve been the second-worst mark among quarterbacks who started at least half of their team’s games this season.

32.6: Luckily for Stidham, the Broncos’ offensive line protecting him is one of the best in the league. Their 32.6 pressure rate allowed is the fifth-best mark in football, per Sharp Football. The Broncos also led the league in sack rate this season.

38.4: What also might be lucky for Stidham is that he’s going up against a Patriots defense that isn’t great at forcing pressure. New England’s 38.4 pressure rate was the 12th-best mark in the regular season, per Sharp Football. They’ve been better at getting to opposing quarterbacks so far in the postseason with nine sacks, but the Chargers’ and Texans’ offensive lines were regarded as among the worst in the league this season.

182: Patriots cornerback Christian Gonzalez has allowed just 182 yards and one touchdown in the last 10 games, per PFF. So, Stidham might have to throw to players other than top wide receiver Courtland Sutton to find success on Sunday.

3.9: The Broncos have averaged just 3.9 yards per carry since J.K. Dobbins went down in Week 10. That mark would’ve been tied for the fourth-worst in the NFL with the Texans if they had that mark for the entirety of the 2025 season.

3.6: Patriots opponents have rushed for just 3.6 yards per carry in the 15 games Robert Spillane has been active this season. So, running the ball might be an even tougher battle for the Broncos on Sunday.

8: The spread for Sunday’s game has fluctuated throughout the week. But as of Saturday afternoon, it sits at Patriots -3.5. If that holds, that could spell trouble for New England. Home underdogs are 8-5 straight up in the conference championship game since the AFL-NFL merger.

5: The Broncos have also played well as underdogs this season. They’re 5-1 straight up when they haven’t been favored, with their only loss coming in Week 3 against the Chargers. They also won as an underdog last week against the Bills.

12: But Maye has also done well as a decent favorite in his career. He’s 12-0 straight up when the Patriots are favored by at least 3.5 points.

16: Mike Vrabel has also been good as a road favorite in his head coaching career, holding a 16-6 record straight up in games in which his teams are favored on the road. They’re also 8-0 straight up in such games in December or later.