New England Patriots
The Patriots won’t have to game plan for Bo Nix next week, as the Broncos quarterback is out for the season.
FOXBOROUGH — It wasn’t pretty at times, but a dominant defensive showing from the Patriots helped New England overcome the Texans 28-16 on Sunday and punch their ticket to the AFC Championship game for the first time since the 2019 season.
Next up, New England will head out on the road to take on the Denver Broncos with a berth to Super Bowl LX on the line.
Kickoff from Empower Field at Mile High is set for 3 p.m. on Sunday, Jan. 25.
The Broncos hold court as the No. 1 seed in the AFC, but New England should have a sizable advantage at the quarterback position entering next Sunday’s showdown in Colorado.
Here are four things to know about New England’s final foe in the AFC field:
The Broncos will have to play their backup QB on Sunday
The Broncos earned a spot in the AFC championship game for the first time since the 2015 season on Saturday, with Denver outlasting Josh Allen and the Bills in overtime, 33-30.
But it may stand as a Pyrrhic victory for Sean Payton and his team.
In one of the final plays of that dramatic win, starting QB Bo Nix broke a bone in his ankle that now requires season-ending surgery.
With Nix sidelined, the Broncos will have to turn to Jarrett Stidham for Sunday’s game against New England, with Sam Ehlinger set to serve as Denver’s backup.
It’s a sizable setback for the Broncos with Nix now out of commission. Denver’s success this season has been rooted in their stingy defense, but Nix has been the key conduit in several impressive wins this season.
Following Saturday’s victory against the Bills, Nix had orchestrated eight game-winning drives this season along for the Broncos — with his strong arm and scrambling ability presenting more challenges for New England’s defense next week had he been cleared to play.
New England has plenty of familiarity with Stidham, as he was picked by the Patriots in the fourth round of the 2019 NFL Draft out of Auburn. Patriots offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels also has a pretty extensive book on the 29-year-old QB.
Beyond crossing paths during their time in Foxborough, McDaniels was head coach of the Raiders in 2022 when Stidham was pressed into action for five games (two starts).
Stidham is 1-3 in four career NFL starts (two for Raiders, two for Broncos in 2023) — completing 117 of 197 passes as a pro for 1,422 yards, eight touchdowns, and eight interceptions.
In a cruel twist of fate given the stakes in play next Sunday, the Broncos were the only team this season that didn’t have their backup QB attempt a pass during regular season action.
The AFC title game will stand as the first time that Stidham will attempt a pass in an NFL game outside the preseason since 2023.
Denver’s defense will once again be a tough matchup for Drake Maye
As much as New England’s red-hot defense has to be relishing the chance to get after Stidham next week, Drake Maye and the Patriots offense is likely staring at another daunting matchup next Sunday against a hard-nosed Broncos defense.
Nix’s fourth-quarter heroics helped Denver soar to the top of the AFC standings with 14 wins. But their success all year long has been centered around an elite defensive unit.
Despite coughing up 30 points to Allen and the Bills on Sunday, Denver has been one of the stingiest defenses all season long. During regular-season action, Denver ranked fourth in the league in points allowed per game (18.9) and fifth in yards allowed per contest (287.7).
While reigning NFL Defensive Player of the Year Patrick Surtain II anchors Denver’s secondary, the Broncos do a lot of their damage at the line of scrimmage.
Will Campbell and New England’s offensive line won’t get much of a breather after getting knocked around by Will Anderson Jr., Danielle Hunter, and the rest of Houston’s potent pass rush on Sunday.
After all, Denver led all NFL teams this season with 68.0 sacks. The Falcons ranked second in the NFL with 11 fewer sacks (57.0) on the year, while New England only generated 35.0 sacks during 17 regular season games.
Maye and the Patriots will once again need to try and find ways to slow down players like Nik Bonitto (14.0 sacks), Jonathan Cooper (8.0 sacks), and John Franklin-Myers (7.5 sacks), while New England’s run game could also be in for some tough sledding.
During regular season action, opposing teams generated an average of 96.2 rushing yards per game against Denver — the fourth-fewest in the NFL.
New England’s de facto home run hitter on the ground in TreVeyon Henderson may not have many chances to swing for the fences, as the Broncos have only coughed up six rushing plays that have gone for 20-plus yards this season.
Denver has been a house of horrors for New England in the playoffs
The Patriots might like their chances on Sunday now that they don’t have to fret over game-planning for Nix.
But the AFC title game still figures to be a tough test for New England. Even though Mike Vrabel’s Patriots were a perfect 8-0 on the road during regular season play, the Patriots have historically struggled in the postseason when forced to play at Empower Field at Mile High.
For all of the success achieved by New England during Tom Brady’s two-decade run, multiple promising trips to the Super Bowl were snuffed out via road games in Denver — with Brady 0-3 in the playoffs at Mile High.
After New England’s shot at a three-peat ended in January 2006 at the hands of Jake Plummer, Brady and the Patriots were also bested by the Broncos in Colorado during both the 2013 and 2015 AFC title games in matchups against Peyton Manning.
Denver might be holding out hope that Sunday’s showdown follows a similar script as the 2015 AFC Championship game — where an elite Broncos defense sacked Brady four times, hit him 20 times, posted two interceptions, and broke up a two-point conversion attempt with 12 seconds to go in a slim 20-18 win.
Denver doesn’t force a lot of turnovers
An easy avenue for a Broncos win next Sunday would likely involve Denver’s defense forcing Maye into some costly turnovers — flipping momentum and taking some of the pressure off of Stidham and the offense to do most of the heavy lifting.
Turnovers have been an issue so far this postseason for Maye, as he’s fumbled the ball six times (losing three) in two postseason games against the Chargers and Texans while getting knocked for two interceptions.
But as stingy as Denver’s defense has been this season, they haven’t done most of their damage by forcing turnovers like the Texans (29 on the year).
For all of their impressive defensive metrics, the Broncos only recorded 10 interceptions and four fumble recoveries on nine forced fumbles during regular season action.
In total, those 14 takeaways rank 26th in the NFL.
Granted, Saturday was a different story for the Broncos against Allen and the Bills, as Denver picked off Allen twice and recovered three more fumbles in that seesaw game against Buffalo.
New England’s defense should be able to corral Stidham next Sunday, but Maye and the Patriots can’t shoot themselves in the foot on the road with a few more costly turnovers — especially when it comes to strip-sacks.
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