Researchers at Dalhousie University believe Canada could experience a net loss of 4,000 restaurants in 2026.
That figure comes in a new report. It means the number of closures is expected to exceed the number of new openings by that amount.
Researchers say more expensive costs for establishment owners and tighter customer spending are to blame.
“It’s much harder to make money when people show up and don’t order an appetizer, they don’t order a dessert and they don’t order that expensive bottle of wine,” said Sylvain Charlebois with the university’s agri-food analytics lab.
One Edmonton business owner has already faced that reality. A year ago, Ariel del Rosario closed his standalone Filistix restaurant in the downtown core, near the Alberta legislature.
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“We just couldn’t recover from COVID and a big factor was the government workers in that area never really came back to work on a full-time basis,” del Rosario said.
Del Rosario still operates two locations at local universities. Since the closure, he’s expanding his catering service and says it’s been doing well.
He’s currently planning to attend expos in hopes of growing his client base.
“Transitioning to catering has been really, really great and it’s something we want to double down on,” del Rosario said.
“I don’t foresee the restaurant business, as in sit-down, dine-in restaurant, getting any better in the next few years.”
In 2025, the report figures Canada had a net loss of 7,000 restaurants.
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